First-place Reds aim to continue mastery of Cubs

Baseball Betting Lines

08/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first-place Cincinnati Reds can make it 12 wins in 15 games with the Chicago Cubs tonight, when the clubs meet for the second of three weekend games at Great American Ball Park.

On Friday, Jay Bruce slammed a career-best three home runs and Chris Valaika also went deep to back eight innings of one-run ball from starter Johnny Cueto as Cincinnati beat Chicago, 7-1.

Bruce tied a career-high with five runs batted in, while Drew Stubbs added two hits, a run scored, two stolen bases and a walk for the Reds, who have won two straight and 10 of 13 overall since being swept by the Cardinals over three games two weeks ago.

Cincinnati leads the Cardinals by four games for the top spot in the National League Central Division.

Cueto (12-4) allowed six hits, did not walk a batter and fanned eight. Sam LeCure retired the side in order in the ninth to preserve the Reds' 11th win in 14 meetings with Chicago.

Tom Gorzelanny (7-8) took the loss after allowing a season-high six earned runs on seven hits and a pair of walks with one strikeout in five innings for the Cubs, who had a three-game win streak halted.

Cincinnati right-hander Bronson Arroyo can reach 15 wins for the third straight season, matching his career-best victory output.

The 33-year-old Key West, Fla. native has won four of his last five to get to win No. 14, which came via a 5-2 decision over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Aug. 22 after he allowed seven hits and two runs in seven innings.

He tossed seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Aug. 6, improving his career mark against them to 9-6 in 21 outings (19 starts).

Arroyo is 5-4 in 12 starts at home in 2010.

Illinois native Randy Wells celebrates his 28th birthday with a chance to end a six-start drought for Chicago.

The veteran of 57 major-league outings improved to 5-7 on the season with a 5-0 defeat of St. Louis on July 23 in Chicago, but is 0-5 with a no-decision since, including a 16-5 loss to Atlanta on Aug. 22 in which he was tagged for seven hits and seven runs in six innings.

He's 3-1 in six career starts against the Reds, including a 3-1 win on July 3, when he gave up five hits and a run in 7 2/3 innings.

Wells has won just twice in 11 road starts this season, allowing 72 hits and 38 runs in 63 1/3 innings while allowing an opposition batting average of .285.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Barry Bonds Watch: Giants Slugger Says He'll Be Back

With only 21 home runs standing between him and Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds is indeed planning on coming back for more in 2007. At least, that's what his agent told the Los Angeles Times.

"Barry's going to play in 2007," Jeff Borris of Beverly Hills Sports Council told the Times on Tuesday. "I've had many discussions with Barry and he's going to play. My intentions are to see to it he's in a big-league uniform next season. Those are my marching orders."

Contract negotiations could get started as early as next week. Let's see which team has the deeper pockets. Will MLB baseball betting lines despite allegations of steroid use? Bet On It at www.MySportsbook.com .

Get all your baseball betting lines, MLB lines and MLB team props at the My Sportbook.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your baseball sportsbook needs.