Illini host Spartans in clash of ranked Big Ten foes

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/01/2009 - Champaign, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of the top teams in the Big Ten Conference will collide this afternoon, as the 20th-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini host the ninth-ranked Michigan State Spartans at Assembly Hall.

The Spartans currently sit atop the Big Ten standings with a 12-3 ledger and with a victory today the team will move one step closer to the top seed in the conference tournament. Michigan State comes into this meeting with five wins in its last six contests, and that includes a 62-54 decision over Iowa on Wednesday.

As for the Illini, they have also collected five of their last six matchups, including two in row. The most recent win for Illinois was a 52-41 victory over Minnesota. The Illini currently sit behind Michigan State with an 11-5 mark in league play, and are tied with the Purdue Boilermakers.

The Fighting Illini hold a slim 53-52 edge over Michigan State in the all-time series and that included a 34-16 advantage for Illinois in Champaign. However, the Spartans have won the last three matchups, including a 63-57 decision over Illinois back in January.

The Spartans have not allowed more than 55 points in any of their last five victories, and are coming off a win over Iowa in which they limited the Hawkeyes to just 54 points. Iowa shot 45.0 percent in the contest, but the Spartans held Iowa to just 6-of-21 shooting from long range, and also forced 16 turnovers. Throughout the season the Spartans have used a tenacious defensive approach to stifle the opposition, as Michigan State is limiting teams to just 62.9 ppg on the year. At the other end of the floor the team has relied on Kalin Lucas, who is producing 14.4 ppg, despite shooting below 40.0 percent for the season. Raymar Morgan is contributing 11.2 ppg on the year, while also grabbing 5.8 rpg. Goran Suton has done a terrific job down low for MSU, and is chipping in with 10.1 ppg, while also collecting a team-best 7.7 rpg. In the win over Iowa, it was Delvin Roe who led the way, netting 16 points, while Korie Lucious added 12 points off the bench. Suton tallied nine points for MSU, while Lucas and Morgan chipped in only four points apiece.

The Illini pride themselves on strong defensive play, and that has been the goal of coach Bruce Weber at Illinois. Since taking over in Champaign back in 2004, the Illini have finished first in scoring defense in the Big Ten three different times, and are well on their way to repeating that achievement this season. Illinois is currently surrendering just 55.5 ppg against conference foes, but overall the team is one of the best in the nation, holding teams to only 55.7 ppg, which ranks third in the entire country. Illinois' stifling defensive play continued in its win over Minnesota, as the Illini held the Golden Gophers to just 41 points. Weber's squad limited Minnesota to a pathetic 31.7 percent shooting effort, which included a 1-of-14 clip from long range. Illinois also forced 20 turnovers in the victory, which turned into 20 points for the Illini. Adding to the scoring for Illinois was Mike Davis who led the way with 14 points and 11 rebounds. Trent Meacham contributed 13 points in the win, while Demetri McCamey tallied 10 points. McCamey comes into this game as the team's leading scorer, netting 11.8 ppg, while also contributing 139 assists. Davis is averaging 11.1 ppg and is pulling down a team-best 7.9 rpg, while Mike Tisdale and Meacham are chipping in 10.7 and 10.3 ppg, respectively.

Marketwarch NCAA Basketball Betting News

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.